Valley Falls, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

720
FXUS61 KBOX 310405
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1205 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will move through tonight, bringing milder
temperatures in for Monday and a few more showers. A cold front
will bring more showers with the risk of downpours and some
rumbles of thunder Monday night into Tuesday morning. Dry
weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending
cooler. Milder temperatures arrive Thursday and Friday with a
round of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures
trend cooler by next weekend with some more rain possible by
later Saturday and/or Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Key Messages:

* Scattered rain showers tonight with warm frontal passage

* Areas of fog and drizzle across the region

Details...

Cloudy conditions will continue for the rest of the day today.
Forecast soundings continue to show an inversion aloft keeping the
moisture at the surface in place, which will continue the
possibility for drizzle across the region.

A warm front moving north into southern New England tonight will
keep low temperatures from reaching or getting below freezing
tonight. Scattered showers from WAA will be a possibility tonight,
along with continued drizzle and fog. Upper level temperatures
improve to the teens (in deg C) going into Monday morning due to
this front, so even with an inversion in place, any air that may mix
down will help warm the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Mild day with areas of drizzle and fog continuing

* Widespread rain showers return tomorrow night with some downpours
  and rumbles of thunder possible

Details...

A trough and its low pressure over the Great Lakes will progress NE
across Canada and northern New England, and its cold front will move
towards southern New England with it. Ahead of this front, we can
expect southerly winds with milder temperatures as we will be in the
warm sector post-warm frontal passage. Moisture at the surface will
remain trapped and will also be advected in from the south,
continuing the chance for areas of fog and drizzle. A LLJ ranging
from 50 to 65 kt is expected to move over the region, with its core
over eastern MA into RI and the Cape and Islands as the trough moves
towards New England. With an inversion in place over these areas,
the potential for widespread strong gusts is low. Most spots across
southeast MA and over the Cape may see gusts to 35 mph or slightly
higher, and 25 mph gusts will be likely throughout southern New
England. Highs Monday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

As the cold front draws nearer, widespread rain with downpours and
some rumbles of thunder will be the main story Monday night. PWATs
are expected to climb to 1.3" to 1.5", indicative of a good chance
for downpours, and elevated instability will aid in the development
of some thunder. Many places could see up to 1" of rain with
localized higher amounts possible. Lows Monday night will be in the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Dry but cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.

* Warmer weather arrives Thursday and Friday before another cool
  down for the weekend.

* Rain returns Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

By sunrise Tuesday the surface cold front has dropped through most,
if not all of southern New England ushering in a much drier airmass
with dewpoints dropping from the 50s to the 30s and PWATs back near
a quarter inch. This, together with a Canadian high pressure moving
overhead will keep things dry with plenty of sun. Despite the cooler
northerly flow around the high, temperatures will make it into the
upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Winds will be breezy out of the
northwest, gusting 20 to 30 mph as the pressure gradient lingers
between the exiting low and incoming high.

Wednesday high pressure is directly overhead leading to sunny skies
and light winds. Most will see highs in the 40s, while those in the
CT Valley likely break 50F.

Wednesday night through Friday...

Unsettled weather returns on Wednesday night into Thursday as warm
front precipitation overspreads the region after sunset. This comes
as a plume of moisture moves into the region out ahead of a low
pressure system over the western Great Lakes. This generates a 45 to
55 kt low level jet overhead leading to scattered showers and breezy
winds Thursday, though a low level inversion may keep the bulk of
the stronger winds aloft. Regardless, this strong SW flow will bring
a much milder airmass overhead, with highs reaching the mid to upper
60s Thursday and Friday. A cold front soon follows on Friday
bringing and end to the rain and cooler temperatures for the
weekend.

Saturday and Sunday...

Colder for the weekend with generally zonal flow expected. This may
allow for a few bouts of unsettled weather but details are uncertain
at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today...Moderate Confidence.

IFR-LIFR conditions dominate today. The early morning fog some of
which was locally dense will burn off later in the morning and
afternoon...except it will persist near the south coast as high
dewpoint air moves over the relatively cold ocean.
The low clouds on the other hand will remain in most locations
given ample low level moisture moves into our region. A few
showers will be possible at times...but the majority of the day
will be rain free at a given location. SSW wind gusts 20 to 30
knots with a few gusts up to 35 knots possible towards the Cape.
Lastly...LLWS will also be an issue today with a strong LLJ of
45 to 55 knots.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Widespread showers with embedded downpours and perhaps a few
embedded t-storms will cross the region tonight ahead of and
along an approaching cold front. IFR-LIFR conditions will begin
to improve towards VFR after midnight across parts of the
interior and toward daybreak along the coastal plain. Some low
clouds and fog may linger through daybreak though towards the
Cape and Islands. SSW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots during the
evening and up to 35 knots near the Cape and Islands. In
addition...LLWS will also persist this evening with the strong
southerly LLJ ahead of the cold front. The wind will begin to
shift to the NW behind the cold front after midnight with some
gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Tuesday...High Confidence.

Any lingering low clouds/fog patches across the Cape/Islands scatter
out by mid morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions on Tue with some NW
wind gusts up to 25 knots.

BOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA, patchy BR.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

* Gale Watch issued for all waters beginning Monday afternoon
  through Tuesday morning.

Tonight: High Confidence.

A warm front lifts north tonight and shifts wind to the
southwest before dawn on Monday with a few gusts nearing 25
knots across the southern waters. Seas today are generally 2 to
4 feet across all waters, building to near 5 feet across the
southern waters by daybreak. Continued low clouds and area of
drizzle with poor visibilities.

Monday and Monday Night: Moderate to High Confidence.

Strengthening south to southwesterly wind nearing gale force
early Monday afternoon. Decided to hold off on converting the
Gale Watch to either a Gale Warning or Small Craft Advisory for
the time being, but was leaning more toward Small Craft
headlines due to the presence of a strong inversion over the
waters during this period that may keep the strongest winds
from mixing down. Seas build to 6 to 8 ft across the outer
waters and 4 to 6 ft along the near shore waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
9 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Frank/BW
MARINE...BW/Hrencecin